Singapore

Estimating Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) from observational data is challenging due to confounding bias. Most studies tackle this bias by balancing distributions globally, but ignore individual heterogeneity and fail to capture the local structure that represents the natural clustering among individuals, which ultimately compromises ITE estimation. While instance-level alignment methods consider heterogeneity, they similarly overlook the local structure information. To address these issues, we propose an end-to-end Multi-$\textbf{P}$rototype alignment method for $\textbf{ITE}$ estimation ($\textbf{PITE}$). PITE effectively captures local structure within groups and enforces cross-group alignment, thereby achieving robust ITE estimation. Specifically, we first define prototypes as cluster centroids based on similar individuals under the same treatment. To identify local similarity and the distribution consistency, we perform instance-to-prototype matching to assign individuals to the nearest prototype within groups, and design a multi-prototype alignment strategy to encourage the matched prototypes to be close across treatment arms in the latent space. PITE not only reduces distribution shift through fine-grained, prototype-level alignment, but also preserves the local structures of treated and control groups, which provides meaningful constraints for ITE estimation. Extensive evaluations on benchmark datasets demonstrate that PITE outperforms 13 state-of-the-art methods, achieving more accurate and robust ITE estimation.

AAAI 2026

PITE: Multi-Prototype Alignment for Individual Treatment Effect Estimation

causal learning

causal effect

machine learning

The purpose of the AAAI conference is to promote research in artificial intelligence (AI) and scientific exchange among AI researchers, practitioners, scientists, and engineers in affiliated disciplines. 

AAAI 2022

poster

We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-26 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.<br><br>

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We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

Color polarization demosaicking (CPDM) aims to reconstruct full-resolution polarization images of four directions from the color-polarization filter array (CPFA) raw image. Due to the challenge of predicting numerous missing pixels and the scarcity of high-quality training data, existing network-based methods, despite effectively recovering scene intensity information, still exhibit significant errors in reconstructing polarization characteristics (degree of polarization, DOP, and angle of polarization, AOP). To address this problem, we introduce the image diffusion prior from text-to-image (T2I) models to overcome the performance bottleneck of network-based methods, with the additional diffusion prior compensating for limited representational capacity caused by restricted data distribution. To effectively leverage the diffusion prior, we explicitly model the polarization uncertainty during reconstruction and use uncertainty to guide the diffusion model in recovering high error regions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed method accurately recovers scene polarization characteristics with both high fidelity and strong visual perception.

Polarization Uncertainty-Guided Diffusion Model for Color Polarization Image Demosaicking

Affective Forecasting is an psychology task that involves predicting an individual's future emotional responses, often hampered by reliance on external factors leading to inaccuracies, and typically remains at a qualitative analysis stage. To address these challenges, we narrows the scope of Affective Forecasting by introducing the concept of Human-interaction-based Emotion Forecasting (EF). This task is set within the context of a two-party interaction, positing that an individual's emotions are significantly influenced by their interaction partner's emotional expressions and informational cues. This dynamic provides a structured perspective for exploring the patterns of emotional change, thereby enhancing the feasibility of emotion forecasting.

Hi-EF: Benchmarking Emotion Forecasting in Human-interaction

Existing vision-and-language navigation models often deviate from the correct trajectory when executing instructions. However, these models lack effective error correction capability, hindering their recovery from errors. To address this challenge, we propose Self-correction Flywheel, a novel post-training paradigm. Instead of considering the model’s error trajectories on the training set as a drawback, our paradigm emphasizes their significance as a valuable data source. We have developed a method to identify deviations in these error trajectories and devised innovative techniques to automatically generate self-correction data for perception and action. These self-correction data serve as fuel to power the model’s continued training. The brilliance of our paradigm is revealed when we re-evaluate the model on the training set, uncovering new error trajectories. At this time, the self-correction flywheel begins to spin. Through multiple flywheel iterations, we progressively enhance our monocular RGB-based VLA navigation model CorrectNav. Experiments on R2R-CE and RxR-CE benchmarks show CorrectNav achieves new state-of-the-art success rates of 65.1% and 69.3%, surpassing prior best VLA navigation models by 8.2% and 16.4%. Real robot tests in various indoor and outdoor environments demonstrate \method's superior capability of error correction, dynamic obstacle avoidance, and long instruction following.

CorrectNav: Self-Correction Flywheel Empowers Vision-Language-Action Navigation Model

Black-box algorithms aim to optimize functions without access to their analytical structure or gradient information, making them essential when gradients are unavailable or computationally expensive to obtain. Traditional methods for black-box optimization (BBO) primarily utilize non-parametric models, but these approaches often struggle to scale effectively in large input spaces. Conversely, parametric approaches, which rely on neural estimators and gradient signals via backpropagation, frequently encounter substantial gradient estimation errors, limiting their reliability. Explicit Gradient Learning (EGL), a recent advancement, directly learns gradients using a first-order Taylor approximation and has demonstrated superior performance compared to both parametric and non-parametric methods. However, EGL inherently remains local and myopic, often faltering on highly non-convex optimization landscapes. In this work, we address this limitation by integrating global statistical insights from the evolutionary algorithm CMA-ES into the gradient learning framework, effectively biasing gradient estimates towards regions with higher optimization potential. Moreover, we enhance the gradient learning process by estimating the Hessian matrix, allowing us to correct the second-order residual of the Taylor series approximation. Our proposed algorithm, EvoGrad² (Evolutionary Gradient Learning with second-order approximation), achieves state-of-the-art results on the synthetic COCO test suite, exhibiting significant advantages in high-dimensional optimization problems. We further demonstrate EvoGrad²'s effectiveness in challenging real-world machine learning tasks, including adversarial training and code generation, highlighting its ability to generate more robust and high-quality solutions. Our results underscore EvoGrad\textsuperscript{2}'s potential as a powerful tool for researchers and practitioners facing complex, high-dimensional, and non-linear optimization problems.

EvoGrad: Evolutionary-Weighted Gradient and Hessian Learning for Black-Box Optimization

Trained on various human-authored corpora, Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated a certain capacity to be prompted towards reflecting specific human-like traits (e.g., personality or values), benefiting downstream personalized LLMs and social simulations. However, current methods suffer from superficial elicitation: LLMs are only steered to mimic shallow, unstable stylistic patterns, failing to embody the desired traits precisely and consistently across diverse tasks like humans. To address this challenge, we propose IROTE, a novel in-context method for stable and transferable trait elicitation. Drawing on psychological theories that traits are formed through identity-related reflection, our method automatically generates and optimizes a textual self-reflection within prompts, which comprises self-perceived experience, to stimulate LLMs' trait-driven behavior. The optimization is performed by iteratively maximizing an information-theoretic objective that enhances the connections between LLMs' behavior and the target trait, while reducing noisy redundancy in reflection without any fine-tuning, leading to evocative and compact trait reflection. Extensive experiments across three human trait systems manifest that one single IROTE-generated self-reflection can induce LLMs' stable impersonation of the target trait across diverse downstream tasks beyond simple questionnaire answering, consistently outperforming existing strong baselines.

IROTE: Human-like Traits Elicitation of Large Language Model via In-Context Self-Reflective Optimization

Detecting unobserved confounders is crucial for reliable causal inference in observational studies. Existing methods require either linearity assumptions or multiple heterogeneous environments, limiting applicability to nonlinear single-environment settings. To bridge this gap, we propose Kernel Regression Confounder Detection (KRCD), a novel method for detecting unobserved confounding in nonlinear observational data under single-environment conditions. KRCD leverages reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces to model complex dependencies. By comparing standard and higher-order kernel regressions, we derive a test statistic whose significant deviation from zero indicates unobserved confounding. Theoretically, we prove two key results: First, in infinite samples, regression coefficients coincide if and only if no unobserved confounders exist. Second, finite-sample differences converge to zero-mean Gaussian distributions with tractable variance. Extensive experiments on synthetic benchmarks and the Twins dataset demonstrate that KRCD not only outperforms existing baselines but also achieves superior computational efficiency.

Detecting Unobserved Confounders: A Kernelized Regression Approach

Uncovering causal structures from observational data is crucial for understanding complex systems and making informed decisions. While reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promise in identifying these structures in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG), existing methods often lack efficiency, making them unsuitable for online applications. In this paper, we propose MARLIN, an efficient multi-agent RL-based approach for incremental DAG learning. MARLIN uses a DAG generation policy that maps a continuous real-valued space to the DAG space as an intra-batch strategy, then incorporates two RL agents—state-specific and state-invariant—to uncover causal relationships and integrates these agents into an incremental learning framework. Furthermore, the framework leverages a factored action space to enhance parallelization efficiency. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that MARLIN outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of both efficiency and effectiveness.

MARLIN: Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Incremental DAG Discovery

The emergence of accurate open large language models (LLMs) has sparked a push for advanced quantization techniques to enable efficient deployment on end-user devices. In this paper, we revisit the challenge of extreme LLM compression---targeting ultra-low-bit quantization for both activations and weights---from a Fourier frequency domain perspective. We propose SpecQuant, a two-stage framework that tackles activation outliers and cross-channel variance. In the first stage, activation outliers are smoothed and transferred into the weight matrix to simplify downstream quantization. In the second stage, we apply channel-wise low-frequency Fourier truncation to suppress high-frequency components while preserving essential signal energy, improving quantization robustness. Our method builds on the principle that most of the weight energy is concentrated in low-frequency components, which can be retained with minimal impact on model accuracy. To enable runtime adaptability, we introduce a lightweight truncation module during inference that adjusts truncation thresholds based on channel characteristics. On LLaMA-3 8B, SpecQuant achieves 4-bit quantization for both weights and activations, narrowing the zero-shot accuracy gap to only 1.5% compared to full precision, while delivering 2× faster inference and 3× lower memory usage.

SpecQuant: Spectral Decomposition and Adaptive Truncation for Ultra-Low-Bit LLMs Quantization

In formal strategic reasoning for Multi-Agent Systems (MAS), agents are typically assumed to (i) employ arbitrarily complex strategies, (ii) execute each move at zero cost, and (iii) operate over fully crisp game structures. These idealized assumptions stand in stark contrast with human decision-making in real-world environments. The natural strategies framework, along with some of its recent variants, partially addresses this gap by restricting strategies to concise rules guarded by regular expressions. Yet, it still overlook both the cost of each action and the uncertainty that often characterizes human perception of facts over the time. In this work, we introduce HumanATLF, a logic that builds upon natural strategies employing both fuzzy semantics and resource‐bound actions: each action carries a real-valued cost drawn from a non‐refillable budget, and atomic conditions and goals have degrees in [0,1]. We give a formal syntax and semantics, and prove that model checking is in P when both the strategy complexity k and resource budget b are fixed, NP-complete if just one strategic operator over Boolean objectives is allowed, and Delta^P_2‐complete when k and b vary. Moreover, we show that recall‐based strategies can be decided in PSPACE. We implement our algorithms in VITAMIN, an open source model-checking tool for MAS and validate them on an adversarial resource-aware drone rescue scenario.

When Natural Strategies Meet Fuzziness and Resource-Bounded Actions

Large Language Models (LLMs) often exhibit sycophantic behavior, agreeing with user-stated opinions even when those contradict factual knowledge. While prior work has documented this tendency, the internal mechanisms that enable such behavior remain poorly understood. In this paper, we provide a mechanistic account of how sycophancy arises within LLMs. We first systematically study how user opinions induce sycophancy across different model families. We find that simple opinion statements reliably induce sycophancy, whereas user expertise framing has a negligible impact. Through logit-lens analysis and causal activation patching, we identify a two-stage emergence of sycophancy: (1) a late-layer output preference shift and (2) deeper representational divergence. We also verify that user authority fails to influence behavior because models do not encode it internally. In addition, we examine how grammatical perspective affects sycophantic behavior, finding that first-person prompts (“I believe...”) consistently induce higher sycophancy rates than third-person framings (“They believe...”) by creating stronger representational perturbations in deeper layers. These findings highlight that sycophancy is not a surface-level artifact but emerges from a structural override of learned knowledge in deeper layers, with implications for alignment and truthful AI systems.

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