Singapore

Time series forecasting is an important task that involves analyzing temporal dependencies and underlying patterns (such as trends, cyclicality, and seasonality) in historical data to predict future values or trends. Current deep learning-based forecasting models primarily employ Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss functions for regression modeling. Despite enabling direct value prediction, this method offers no uncertainty estimation and exhibits poor outlier robustness.
To address these limitations, we propose OCE-TS, a novel ordinal classification approach for time series forecasting that replaces MSE with Ordinal Cross-Entropy (OCE) loss, preserving prediction order while quantifying uncertainty through probability output. Specifically, OCE-TS begins by discretizing observed values into ordered intervals and deriving their probabilities via a parametric distribution as supervision signals. Using a simple linear model, we then predict probability distributions for each timestep. The OCE loss is computed between the cumulative distributions of predicted and ground-truth probabilities, explicitly preserving ordinal relationships among forecasted values.
Through theoretical analysis using influence functions, we establish that cross-entropy (CE) loss exhibits superior stability and outlier robustness compared to MSE loss.
Empirically, we compared OCE-TS with five baseline models—Autoformer, DLinear, iTransformer, TimeXer, and TimeBridge—on seven public time series datasets. Using MSE and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as evaluation metrics, the results demonstrate that OCE-TS consistently outperforms benchmark models.
The code will be published.

AAAI 2026

Beyond MSE: Ordinal Cross-Entropy for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

time series forecasting data streams probabilistic forecasting

We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

The purpose of the AAAI conference series is to promote research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and foster scientific exchange between researchers, practitioners, scientists, students, and engineers across the entirety of AI and its affiliated disciplines. AAAI-26 will feature technical paper presentations, special tracks, invited speakers, workshops, tutorials, poster sessions, senior member presentations, competitions, and exhibit programs, and a range of other activities to be announced.<br><br>

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We are pleased to announce the Fortieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-26), which will be held in Singapore EXPO from January 20 to January 27, 2026.

poster

Text-driven 3D editing enables user-friendly 3D object or scene editing with text instructions. Existing methods usually employ off-the-shelf 2D generation or editing models to perform per-view editing, followed by iterative 3D updating. However, these methods suffer from multi-view inconsistency and slow convergence speed due to the lack of cross-view consistency priors. In this paper, we propose, for the first time to our best knowledge, generative Video Prior based 3D Editing, ViP3DE in short, to explore the use of temporal consistency priors in video generation models, achieving effective 3D editing within a single forward pass. Our key insight lies in the utilization of pre-trained video priors to directly generate multi-view consistent editing results, thereby bypassing the conventional inefficient 2D-3D-2D iterative editing paradigm. To generate edited views from specific perspectives, we propose motion-preserved noise blending to ensure that the edited views inherit camera motion cues from the source views. In addition, we introduce geometrically aware denoising to further enhance cross-view consistency by integrating 3D geometric priors into video models during the diffusion denoising process. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed ViP3DE can achieve high-quality 3D editing results even within a single forward pass, significantly outperforming existing methods in both editing quality and speed. Code and model will be made publicly available.

Fast Multi-view Consistent 3D Editing with Video Priors

Cross-modal alignment is a promising yet challenging task in multimodal learning. Existing methods typically assess it by measuring the cross-modal semantic similarity from both global and local perspectives. However, these methods often neglect their potential interdependence. Specifically, global matching methods suffer from the over-compression of local features, while local matching methods rarely consider the inherent spatial topology of image patches. To address these limitations, we propose MG-Net, a unified framework with two collaborative modules: Multi-View Differential Mixer (MDM) and Graph-Guided Structural Region Selector (GSRS). The MDM is designed to capture discriminative global representations. It generates a series of views by decomposing feature vectors through multi-order differential operations, and adaptively fuses them via a lightweight Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) network. Meanwhile, the GSRS organizes image patches as a spatial graph and employs text-guided contextual reasoning to select spatially coherent and semantically complete structural region. Extensive experiments on the Flickr30K and MS-COCO benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed MG-Net outperforms state-of-the-art methods in most cases.

Multi-View Differential Mixing and Graph-Guided Structural Region Selection for Cross-Modal Alignment

We present *bfact*, a Python package for performing accurate low-rank Boolean matrix factorisation (BMF). *bfact* uses a hybrid combinatorial optimisation approach based on \emph{a priori} candidate factors generated from clustering algorithms. It selects the best disjoint factors, before performing either a second combinatorial, or heuristic algorithm to recover the BMF. We show that *bfact* does particularly well at estimating the true rank of matrices in simulated settings. In real benchmarks, using a collation of single-cell RNA-sequencing datasets from the Human Lung Cell Atlas, we show that bfact achieves strong signal recovery, with a much lower rank.

Hybrid Restricted Master Problem for Boolean Matrix Factorisation

Understanding dynamic 4D scenes from an egocentric perspective—modeling changes in 3D spatial structure over time—is crucial for human–machine interaction, autonomous navigation, and embodied intelligence. While existing egocentric datasets contain dynamic scenes, they lack unified 4D annotations and task-driven evaluation protocols for fine-grained spatio-temporal reasoning, especially on motion of objects and human, together with their interactions.

To address this gap, we introduce EgoDynamic4D, a novel QA benchmark on highly dynamic scenes, comprising RGB-D video, camera poses, globally unique instance masks, and 4D bounding boxes. We construct 927K QA pairs accompanied by explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT), enabling verifiable, step-by-step spatio-temporal reasoning. We design 12 dynamic QA tasks covering agent motion, human–object interaction, trajectory prediction, relation understanding, and temporal–causal reasoning, with fine-grained, multidimensional metrics.

To tackle these tasks, we propose an end-to-end spatio-temporal reasoning framework that unifies dynamic and static scene information, using instance-aware feature encoding, time and camera encoding, and spatially adaptive down-sampling to compress large 4D scenes into token sequences manageable by LLMs. Experiments on EgoDynamic4D show that our method consistently outperforms baselines, validating the effectiveness of multimodal temporal modeling for egocentric dynamic scene understanding.

Understanding Dynamic Scenes in Ego Centric 4D Point Clouds

Nowadays, recommendation systems have become crucial to online platforms, shaping user exposure by accurate preference modeling. However, such an exposure strategy can also reinforce users’ existing preferences, leading to a notorious phenomenon named filter bubbles. Given its negative effects, such as group polarization, increasing attention has been paid to exploring reasonable measures to filter bubbles. However, most existing evaluation metrics simply measure the diversity of user exposure, failing to distinguish between algorithmic preference modeling and actual information confinement. In view of this, we introduce Bubble Escape Potential (BEP), a behavior-aware measure that quantifies how easily users can escape from filter bubbles. Specifically, BEP leverages a contrastive simulation framework that assigns different behavioral tendencies (e.g., positive vs. negative) to synthetic users and compares the induced exposure patterns. This design enables decoupling the effect of filter bubbles and preference modeling, allowing for more precise diagnosis of bubble severity.
We conduct extensive experiments across multiple recommendation models to examine the relationship between predictive accuracy and bubble escape potential across different groups. To the best of our knowledge, our empirical results are the first to quantitatively validate the dilemma between preferences modeling and filter bubbles. What's more, we observe a counter-intuitive phenomenon that mild random recommendations are ineffective in alleviating filter bubbles, which can offer a principled foundation for further work in this direction.

Quantifying the Potential to Escape Filter Bubbles: A Behavior-Aware Measure via Contrastive Simulation

Textual open intent classification is crucial for real-world dialogue systems, enabling robust detection of unknown user intents without prior knowledge and contributing to the robustness of the system. While adaptive decision boundary methods have shown great potential by eliminating manual threshold tuning, existing approaches assume isotropic distributions of known classes, restricting boundaries to balls and overlooking distributional variance along different directions. To address this limitation, we propose EliDecide, a novel method that learns ellipsoid decision boundaries with varying scales along different feature directions. First, we employ supervised contrastive learning to obtain a discriminative feature space for known samples. Second, we apply learnable matrices to parameterize ellipsoids as the boundaries of each known class, offering greater flexibility than spherical boundaries defined solely by centers and radii. Third, we optimize the boundaries via a novelly designed dual loss function that balances empirical and open-space risks: expanding boundaries to cover known samples while contracting them against synthesized pseudo-open samples. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple text intent benchmarks and further on a question classification dataset. The flexibility of the ellipsoids demonstrates superior open intent detection capability and strong potential for generalization to more text classification tasks in diverse complex open-world scenarios. Code is included in the supplementary material and will be released upon publication.

Ellipsoid-Based Decision Boundaries for Open Intent Classification

Brain network analysis technology reveals the organizational mechanism and information processing mode by constructing the structural connection network between brain regions. It has achieved satisfactory results in brain disease prediction tasks, promoting the progress of neuroscience. In recent years, graph transformer has become the most mainstream method for brain analysis with its powerful feature extraction ability and attention mechanism. However, these methods face two challenges, i.e., lack of interpretability, and neglect of semantic associations among brain regions. To solve these problems, we proposed a large language model (LLM)-driven causal knowledge brain network transformer framework, termed BrainCKT, which is plug-and-play, and can adapt to most of the existing mainstream graph transformer-based methods. Specifically, we constructed a brain region causal graph and used its adjacency matrix to guide the learning process of the self-attention mechanism. In addition, we constructed a brain science knowledge graph and encoded it through a pre-trained model to enhance the original brain region features. Finally, we integrated BrainCKT into four mainstream graph transformer baselines for verification. Experimental results on two brain imaging datasets proved the effectiveness of BrainCKT.

Make Model Transparent: Brain Network Analysis via Causal and Knowledge Graph Learning

Automatic pronunciation assessment plays a crucial role in computer-assisted pronunciation training systems. Due to the ability to perform multiple pronunciation tasks simultaneously, multi-aspect multi-granularity pronunciation assessment methods are gradually receiving more attention and achieving better performance than single-level modeling tasks. However, existing methods only consider unidirectional dependencies between adjacent granularity levels, lacking bidirectional interaction among phoneme, word, and utterance levels and thus insufficiently capturing the acoustic structural correlations. To address this issue, we propose a novel residual hierarchical interactive method, HIA for short, that enables bidirectional modeling across granularities. As the core of HIA, the Interactive Attention Module leverages an attention mechanism to achieve dynamic bidirectional interaction, effectively capturing linguistic features at each granularity while integrating correlations between different granularity levels. We also propose a residual hierarchical structure to alleviate the feature forgetting problem when modeling acoustic hierarchies. In addition, we use 1-D convolutional layers to enhance the extraction of local contextual cues at each granularity. Extensive experiments on the speechocean762 dataset show that our model is comprehensively ahead of the existing state-of-the-art methods.

Multi-granularity Interactive Attention Framework for Residual Hierarchical Pronunciation Assessment

Stable Diffusion (SD) often produces degraded outputs when the training dataset contains adversarial noise. Adversarial purification offers a promising solution by removing adversarial noise from contaminated data. However, existing purification methods are primarily designed for classification tasks and fail to address SD-specific adversarial strategies, such as attacks targeting the VAE encoder, UNet denoiser, or both.
To address the gap in SD security, we propose Universal Diffusion Adversarial Purification (UDAP), a novel framework tailored for defending adversarial attacks targeting SD models. UDAP leverages the distinct reconstruction behaviors of clean and adversarial images during Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models (DDIM) inversion to optimize the purification process. By minimizing the DDIM metric loss, UDAP can effectively remove adversarial noise. Additionally, we introduce a dynamic epoch adjustment strategy that adapts optimization iterations based on reconstruction errors, significantly improving efficiency without sacrificing purification quality.
Experiments demonstrate UDAP’s robustness against diverse adversarial methods, including PID (VAE-targeted), Anti-DreamBooth (UNet-targeted), MIST (hybrid), and robustness-enhanced variants like Anti-Diffusion (Anti-DF) and MetaCloak. UDAP also generalizes well across SD versions and text prompts, showcasing its practical applicability in real-world scenarios.

Universal Adversarial Purification with DDIM Metric Loss for Stable Diffusion

4D flow magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a reliable, non-invasive approach for estimating blood flow velocities, vital for cardiovascular diagnostics. Unlike conventional MRI focused on anatomical structures, 4D flow MRI requires high spatiotemporal resolution for early detection of critical conditions such as stenosis or aneurysms. However, achieving such resolution typically results in prolonged scan times, creating a trade-off between acquisition speed and prediction accuracy. Recent studies have leveraged physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for super-resolution of MRI data, but their practical applicability is limited as the prohibitively slow training process must be performed for each patient. To overcome this limitation, we propose PINGS-X, a novel framework modeling high-resolution flow velocities using axes-aligned spatiotemporal Gaussian representations. Inspired by the effectiveness of 3D Gaussian splatting (3DGS) in novel view synthesis, PINGS-X extends this concept through several non-trivial novel innovations: (i) normalized Gaussian splatting with a formal convergence guarantee, (ii) axes-aligned Gaussians that simplify training for high-dimensional data while preserving accuracy and the convergence guarantee, and (iii) a Gaussian merging procedure to prevent degenerate solutions and boost computational efficiency.
Experimental results on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and real 4D flow MRI datasets demonstrate that PINGS-X substantially reduces training time while achieving superior super-resolution accuracy. Our code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/PINGS-X-01AC.

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