United States

This study empirically tests the Narrative Economics hypothesis, which posits that narratives (ideas that are spread virally and affect public beliefs) can influence economic fluctuations. We introduce two curated datasets containing posts from X (formerly Twitter) which capture economy-related narratives. Employing Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods, we extract and summarize narratives from
the tweets. We test their predictive power for macroeconomic forecasting by incorporating the tweets’ or the extracted narratives’ representations in downstream financial prediction tasks. Our work highlights the challenges in improving macroeconomic models with narrative data, paving the way for the research
community to realistically address this important challenge. From a scientific perspective, our investigation offers valuable insights and NLP tools for narrative extraction and summarization using Large Language Models (LLMs), contributing to future research on the role of narratives in economics.1

NAACL 2025

Can LLMs Learn Macroeconomic Narratives from Social Media?

quantitative analyses of news and/or social media

nlp tools for social analysis

human behavior analysis

## Welcome to EMNLP 2024! 
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EMNLP 2024

EMNLP 2024 will take place in Miami, Florida from Nov 12th to Nov 16th, 2024, at the Hyatt Regency Miami Hote and on Underline for remote participants.

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### Welcome to 2025 Annual Conference of the Nations of the Americas Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics

Welcome to the 2025 meeting of the Nations of the Americas Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics! I am proud to help organize the first NAACL conference to carry the new name of our organization, one that emphasizes inclusion for all of the Americas. I am also pleased to welcome you to Albuquerque, New Mexico, a state whose unique blend of cultural influences will make for an excellent backdrop for NAACL 2025, especially with this year’s special theme on NLP in a Multicultural World. 
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Welcome to 2025 Annual Conference of the Nations of the Americas Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been recently adopted in interactive systems requiring communication. As the false belief in a model can harm the usability of such systems, LLMs should not have cognitive biases that humans have. Psychologists especially focus on the False Consensus Effect (FCE), a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate the extent to which others share their beliefs or behaviors, because FCE can distract smooth communication by posing false beliefs. However, previous studies have less examined FCE in LLMs thoroughly, which needs more consideration of confounding biases, general situations, and prompt changes. Therefore, in this paper, we conduct two studies to examine the FCE phenomenon in LLMs. In Study 1, we investigate whether LLMs have FCE. In Study 2, we explore how various prompting styles affect the demonstration of FCE. As a result of these studies, we identified that popular LLMs have FCE. Also, the result specifies the conditions when FCE becomes more or less prevalent compared to normal usage.

People will agree what I think: Investigating LLM's False Consensus Effect

Online discussion forums provide crucial data to understand the concerns of a wide range of real-world communities. However, the typical qualitative and quantitative methodologies used to analyze those data, such as thematic analysis and topic modeling, are infeasible to scale or require significant human effort to translate outputs to human readable forms. This study introduces QuaLLM, a novel LLM-based framework to analyze and extract quantitative insights from text data on online forums. The framework consists of a novel prompting and human evaluation methodology. We applied this framework to analyze over one million comments from two of Reddit's rideshare worker communities, marking the largest study of its type. We uncover significant worker concerns regarding AI and algorithmic platform decisions, responding to regulatory calls about worker insights. In short, our work sets a new precedent for AI-assisted quantitative data analysis to surface concerns from online forums.

QuaLLM: An LLM-based Framework to Extract Quantitative Insights from Online Forums

We introduce a text-based framework for measuring attitudes in communities toward issues of interest, going beyond the pro/con/neutral of conventional stance detection to characterize attitudes on a continuous scale using both implicit and explicit evidence in language. The framework exploits LLMs both to extract attitude-related evidence and to perform pairwise comparisons that yield unidimensional attitude scores via the classic Bradley-Terry model. We validate the LLM-based steps using human judgments, and illustrate the utility of the approach for social science by examining the evolution of attitudes on two high-profile issues in U.S. politics in two political communities on Reddit over the period spanning from the 2016 presidential campaign to the 2022 mid-term elections. WARNING: Potentially sensitive political content.

PairScale: Analyzing Attitude Change with Pairwise Comparisons

Large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have achieved unprecedented success in several objective multimodal reasoning tasks. However, to further enhance their capabilities of empathetic and effective communication with humans, improving how VLMs process and understand emotions is crucial. Despite significant research attention on improving affective understanding, there is a lack of detailed evaluations of VLMs for emotion-related tasks, which can potentially help inform downstream fine-tuning efforts. In this work, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of VLMs for recognizing evoked emotions from images. We create a benchmark for the task of evoked emotion recognition and study the performance of VLMs for this task, from perspectives of correctness and robustness. Through several experiments, we demonstrate important factors that emotion recognition performance depends on, and also characterize the various errors made by VLMs in the process. Finally, we pinpoint potential causes for errors through a human evaluation study. We use our experimental results to inform recommendations for the future of emotion research in the context of VLMs.

Evaluating Vision-Language Models for Emotion Recognition

Misinformation spreads rapidly on social media, confusing the truth and targeting potentially vulnerable people. To effectively mitigate the negative impact of misinformation, it must first be accurately detected before applying a mitigation strategy, such as X's community notes, which is currently a manual process. This study takes a knowledge-based approach to misinformation detection, modelling the problem similarly to one of natural language inference. The EffiARA annotation framework is introduced, aiming to utilise inter- and intra-annotator agreement to understand the reliability of each annotator and influence the training of large language models for classification based on annotator reliability. In assessing the EffiARA annotation framework, the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict Knowledge-Based Misinformation Classification Dataset (RUC-MCD) was developed and made publicly available. This study finds that sample weighting using annotator reliability performs the best, utilising both inter- and intra-annotator agreement and soft label training. The highest classification performance achieved using Llama-3.2-1B was a macro-F1 of 0.757 and 0.740 using TwHIN-BERT-large.

Efficient Annotator Reliability Assessment and Sample Weighting for Knowledge-Based Misinformation Detection on Social Media

Social media provides a valuable lens for assessing public perceptions and opinions. This paper focuses on the concept of truthfulness stance, which evaluates whether a textual utterance affirms, disputes, or remains neutral or indifferent toward a factual claim. Our systematic analysis fills a gap in the existing literature by offering the first in-depth conceptual framework encompassing various definitions of stance. We introduce RATSD (Retrieval Augmented Truthfulness Stance Detection), a novel method that leverages large language models (LLMs) with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) to enhance the contextual understanding of tweets in relation to claims. RATSD is evaluated on TSD-CT, our newly developed dataset containing 3,105 claim-tweet pairs, along with existing benchmark datasets. Our experiment results demonstrate that RATSD outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving a significant increase in Macro-F1 score on TSD-CT. Our contributions establish a foundation for advancing research in misinformation analysis and provide valuable tools for understanding public perceptions in digital discourse.

RATSD: Retrieval Augmented Truthfulness Stance Detection from Social Media Posts Toward Factual Claims

Although there has been a growing interest among industries in integrating generative LLMs into their services, limited experience and scarcity of resources act as a barrier in launching and servicing large-scale LLM-based services. In this paper, we share our experiences in developing and operating generative AI models within a national-scale search engine, with a specific focus on the sensitiveness of user queries. We propose a taxonomy for sensitive search queries, outline our approaches, and present a comprehensive analysis report on sensitive queries from actual users. We believe that our experiences in launching generative AI search systems can contribute to reducing the barrier in building generative LLM-based services.

Taxonomy and Analysis of Sensitive User Queries in Generative AI Search System

Hate speech (HS) erodes the inclusiveness of online users and propagates negativity and division. Counterspeech has been recognized as a way to mitigate the harmful consequences. While some research has investigated the impact of user-generated counterspeech on social media platforms, few have examined and modeled haters' reactions toward counterspeech, despite the immediate alteration of haters' attitudes being an important aspect of counterspeech. This study fills the gap by analyzing the impact of counterspeech from the hater's perspective, focusing on whether the counterspeech leads the hater to reenter the conversation and if the reentry is hateful. We compile the Reddit Echoes of Hate dataset (ReEco), which consists of triple-turn conversations featuring haters' reactions, to assess the impact of counterspeech. To predict haters' behaviors, we employ two strategies: a two-stage reaction predictor and a three-way classifier. The linguistic analysis sheds insights on the language of counterspeech to hate eliciting different haters' reactions. Experimental results demonstrate that the 3-way classification model outperforms the two-stage reaction predictor, which first predicts reentry and then determines the reentry type. We conclude the study with an assessment showing the most common errors identified by the best-performing model.

Echoes of Discord: Forecasting Hater Reactions to Counterspeech

While affective expressions on social media have been extensively studied, most research has focused on the Western context. This paper explores cultural differences in affective expressions by comparing valence and arousal on Twitter/X (geolocated to the US) and Sina Weibo (in Mainland China). Using the NRC-VAD lexicon to measure valence and arousal, we identify distinct patterns of emotional expression across both platforms. Our analysis reveals a functional representation between valence and arousal, showing a negative offset in contrast to traditional lab-based findings which suggest a positive offset. Furthermore, we uncover significant cross-cultural differences in arousal, with US users displaying higher emotional intensity than Chinese users, regardless of the valence of the content. Finally, we conduct a comprehensive language analysis correlating n-grams and LDA topics with affective dimensions to deepen our understanding of how language and culture shape emotional expression. These findings contribute to a more nuanced understanding of affective communication across cultural and linguistic contexts on social media.

Language-based Valence and Arousal Expressions between the United States and China: a Cross-Cultural Examination

Citation practices are crucial in shaping the structure of scientific knowledge, yet they are often influenced by contemporary norms and biases. The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) introduces a new dynamic to these practices. Interestingly, the characteristics and potential biases of references recommended by LLMs that entirely rely on their parametric knowledge, and not on search or retrieval-augmented generation, remain unexplored. Here, we analyze these characteristics in an experiment using a dataset from AAAI, NeurIPS, ICML, and ICLR, published after GPT-4's knowledge cut-off date. In our experiment, LLMs are tasked with suggesting scholarly references for the anonymized in-text citations within these papers. Our findings reveal a remarkable similarity between human and LLM citation patterns, but with a more pronounced high citation bias, which persists even after controlling for publication year, title length, number of authors, and venue. The results hold for both GPT-4, and the more capable models GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 where the papers are part of the training data. Additionally, we observe a large consistency between the characteristics of LLM's existing and non-existent generated references, indicating the model's internalization of citation patterns. By analyzing citation graphs, we show that the references recommended are embedded in the relevant citation context, suggesting an even deeper conceptual internalization of the citation networks. While LLMs can aid in citation generation, they may also amplify existing biases, such as the Matthew effect, and introduce new ones, potentially skewing scientific knowledge dissemination.

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